Market Outlook for Next week 28-09-2020 to 01-10-2020


Last Week Nifty did breakdown below strong support of 11370-11400 and closed at 11050. And for coming week small bounce back is expected in the range of 11200-11300 and from that range market may start falling and continue its downtrend rally towards 10700-10500. Last week price action clearly indicates that there is change in market trend from bullish to bearish. As long as sustain below 11350-11400 it will be remain negative.

Daily Chart of Nifty-50:-

On a Daily Chart Nifty has formed major trend reversal price action. And important levels are mentioned on chart. Now, as far as Nifty sustain below 11000 we may see downside rally and above 111200 range bound. And fresh upside rally only above 11600 which is difficult now. Hence, look for shorting opportunity at each up move.

Weekly Chart of Nifty-50:-

As per weekly chart Nifty fail to sustain above long term trendline and shown reversal exact from that line. Since last 3 to 4 week market struggle to sustain above but finally bears won the game and took control over the bulls. Hence, on a weekly basis also market fail to show positive sign for fresh rally. Follow sell on rise trading strategy for coming week. 

Option Chain Analysis of Nifty for Expiry of 01-10-2020:-

According to Option Chain data there is huge call writing in the range of 11000 to 11300 and therefore we may see reversal in Nifty from this range. And strong support in the range of 10800-10900 with highest put writing. In Nifty at each 100 point range there is Put writing of 10 Lac open interest and therefore we may see expansion in trading range of Nifty which may be minimum 100 points in the day. Currently call writers of 11000 strike price are in risk because nifty closed at 11050 that is above 11000 and there is 17 Lac open interest in 11000 Strike price, means that if on Monday nifty starts trading above 11050 then we may see short covering from 11000 Call writers and that rally may bring Nifty towards 11100. 

India VIX:-

Volatility Index is showing very volatility during the intraday session. Since last few days it is moving 5% to 10% during the day which is not good at all. As per my view VIX should remain below 20 for smooth trading moves and above 23-24 again big trading range can be expected. Put Call ratio at 1.30 which is good for bulls. 

How To Trade in Nifty for Tomorrow:-

One Can Buy Nifty in range of 10965-11020 with Stop Loss at 10915 for Target of 11123-11200.

One can Short Nifty below 10915 with Stop Loss at 10970 for Target of 10850-10800.    

(Probability of Buy entry is 70% and Short Entry is 30%)

Bank Nifty:-

Bank Nifty continuously showing downtrend on daily chart and weekly chart. Majority of Banking Stocks are showing downtrend. With downtrend in Banking Sector Nifty is also facing resistance and showing signal of downtrend. If Bank Nifty starts showing positive price action above 21500 then we may see some upward rally towards 22000 and below 20500 we may see downside rally towards 20000.

Daily Chart of Bank Nifty:-

On a Daily chart Bank Nifty has breached the important support of 21000. Hence, for coming week if Bank Nifty sustain above 21000 then we may see upside move towards 21500-22000. Currently Bank Nifty is in downtrend and therefore we may see sell on rise kind of price action on coming week. Combining option chain and Daily chart Bank Nifty may trade in the range of 21500-20500 for coming week. Fresh 500 Point rally can be seen once it breaks either 21500 on upside and 20500 on downside.

Weekly Chart of Bank Nifty:-

On a Weekly chart Bank Nifty at very very critical level of 20500. There is support of weekly trendline at 20500-20400. Hence, Bank Nifty has to sustain above 20500-20400 for any upside, otherwise we may see level of 19000-16000 in coming session. Not immediately but in coming 5-6 week. 

Option Chain Analysis of Bank Nifty for Expiry of 01-10-2020:-

According to Option Chain 21000 will be the make or break level for next week. Because at 21000 Strike Price there is Call writing of 7 Lac shares and last closing of Bank Nifty is at 20982 that is near to 21000. Hence, in coming session if Bank Nifty start trading above 21000 then we may see short covering move towards 21200-21500. Above 21000 there is strong resistance at 21500 and 22000 with highest call writing. On downside there is strong support at 20500-20000 with highest put writing. Hence, for coming week Bank Nifty may trade between 20500-21500. 

How To Trade in Bank Nifty for Tomorrow:-

One can Buy Bank Nifty in the range of 20750-20850 with Stop Loss at 20600 for Target of 21200.

One Can short Bank Nifty below 20600 with Stop Loss at 20750 for target of 20300-20200.

(Probability of Short Entry is 30% and Buy Entry is 70%)

Thank You..

Happy Trading.
"Learn & Earn"...!!

(Disclaimers:- Above is my personal view on market for Next Week. It is neither Paid service nor tip. Just for educational purpose only. Take your own decision before any trade).


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